1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to RheinEnergieStadion to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 March 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Werder Bremen are 0.50 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Werder Bremen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Köln lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 54% versus Werder Bremen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 54% | Werder Bremen 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.14 xG and Werder Bremen 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.735 / defence 1.234 | Werder Bremen attack 0.795 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.409. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 1. FC Köln games / 22 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 30% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 41%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Werder Bremen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 60% | Werder Bremen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 30% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.14 / Werder Bremen 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.735 / def 1.234 | Werder Bremen attack 0.795 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Werder Bremen xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 7 March 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
1. FC Köln 1 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen part of?
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 30% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 1 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.73x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.80x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
30%
3.38
29%
3.40
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.52
1.38
Werder Bremen xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.38 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Köln come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 6D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (6W 8D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.18 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Köln's home form reads 1W 3D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Werder Bremen have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.60 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 7-1 on 21 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
4
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when 1. FC Köln 3-1 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 60%, Werder Bremen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (1. FC Köln) and 30% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 40% of games; Werder Bremen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Köln's games and 60% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 30% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 24, as 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.14 xG and Werder Bremen 1.38 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.73 / defence 1.23 against Werder Bremen attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 30% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 41%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 54%, Werder Bremen 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 0.95 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.