1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to RheinEnergieStadion to take on 1. FC Köln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Köln 0.90 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1. FC Köln, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 79% and SC Paderborn 07 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 62% | SC Paderborn 07 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.40 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.821 / defence 0.915 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.623 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Data: 42 1. FC Köln games / 8 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 51% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | SC Paderborn 07 5.00. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Köln 90% | SC Paderborn 07 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 51% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.40 / SC Paderborn 07 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.821 / def 0.915 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.623 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.78
SC Paderborn 07 xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at RheinEnergieStadion.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 51% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Köln's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.50
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.18
0.78
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
5%
19.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 0.78 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Köln come into this having played 42 games, going 9W 14D 19L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.69 PPG from 42 outings (20W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Köln's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.52 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 9W 14D 19L in their last 42 games (0.98 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.29 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.52 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
0
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 1-2 1. FC Köln.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 86%, SC Paderborn 07 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (1. FC Köln) and 48% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 48%; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of 1. FC Köln's games and 43% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 48% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Köln and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.