1. FC Köln 3-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as 1. FC Köln welcome Hertha BSC to RheinEnergieStadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Köln — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Köln haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at RheinEnergieStadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hertha BSC haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hertha BSC's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (1. FC Köln) versus 1.40 (Hertha BSC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for 1. FC Köln, 0 for Hertha BSC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 59% versus Hertha BSC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 59% | Hertha BSC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.48 xG and Hertha BSC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.920 / defence 1.110 | Hertha BSC attack 0.941 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.260. Data: 34 1. FC Köln games / 34 Hertha BSC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 39% | Draw 30% | Hertha BSC 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Hertha BSC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 60% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 39% | Draw 30% | Hertha BSC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.48 / Hertha BSC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.920 / def 1.110 | Hertha BSC attack 0.941 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hertha BSC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
1. FC Köln 3 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC part of?
1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 39% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.92) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.36
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.79
1.32
Hertha BSC xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
7%
13.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.32 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 9W 9D 16L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. 1. FC Köln haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Hertha BSC's form line: 8W 11D 15L from 34 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. Hertha BSC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.06 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 3W 6D 8L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.21 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Pre-Season
Hertha BSC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 9W 9D 16L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.82 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when 1. FC Köln won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when 1. FC Köln 0-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 65%, Hertha BSC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (1. FC Köln) and 47% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 29% of games; Hertha BSC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1. FC Köln's games and 65% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 47% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Hertha BSC 3-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.48 xG and Hertha BSC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Hertha BSC attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 39% | Draw 30% | Hertha BSC 32%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 59%, Hertha BSC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.06 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.