1. FC Köln 0-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees 1899 Hoffenheim travel to RheinEnergieStadion to take on 1. FC Köln. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at RheinEnergieStadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Köln 1.70 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour 1899 Hoffenheim, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for 1. FC Köln.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2021, ended 0–5 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
1. FC Köln trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
1899 Hoffenheim trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 64% and 1899 Hoffenheim 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 57% | 1899 Hoffenheim 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.55 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.854 / defence 0.899 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.109 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.743 / away 1.354. Data: 58 1. FC Köln games / 58 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 50% | 1899 Hoffenheim 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.55 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.854 / def 0.899 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.109 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.743 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.35
1899 Hoffenheim xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
1. FC Köln 0 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 41% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 0 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.85x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.70
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.90
1.35
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.35 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Köln's recent record stands at 18W 18D 22L from 58 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 21L across 58 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.24 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Köln have managed 10W 8D 11L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 7W 9D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.71 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 18W 18D 22L in their last 58 games (1.24 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 23W 14D 21L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.31 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2021, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
5
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when 1. FC Köln 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 62%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Köln and 66% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of 1. FC Köln's games and 69% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 66% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1899 Hoffenheim defy the odds to beat 1. FC Köln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat 1. FC Köln 0-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.55 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.35 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 41% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 32%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 57%, 1899 Hoffenheim 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.24 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.