Werder Bremen 0-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Hamburger SV travel to wohninvest WESERSTADION to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 2D 6L at wohninvest WESERSTADION — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hamburger SV — All Games: 2W 3D 1L from 6 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Werder Bremen) versus 1.50 (Hamburger SV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hamburger SV in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 50% and Hamburger SV 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 67% | Hamburger SV 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.38 xG and Hamburger SV 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.126 / defence 1.212 | Hamburger SV attack 0.940 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.347. Data: 6 Werder Bremen games / 6 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 31% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 38%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Hamburger SV 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | Hamburger SV 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 31% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Werder Bremen 1.38 / Hamburger SV 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.126 / def 1.212 | Hamburger SV attack 0.940 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Hamburger SV xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Werder Bremen 0 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV part of?
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 31% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 1.13x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
31%
3.23
31%
3.19
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.92
1.53
Hamburger SV xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
15.00
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.53 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Werder Bremen come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.83 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Werder Bremen's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 83%.
Defensively: Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
Hamburger SV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Hamburger SV away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.33 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV?
From 4 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-1 Hamburger SV.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Werder Bremen at 67%, Hamburger SV at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Werder Bremen and 67% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hamburger SV in 33%; Hamburger SV in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Werder Bremen's games and 67% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Werder Bremen's matches and 67% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.38 xG and Hamburger SV 1.53 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.13 / defence 1.21 against Hamburger SV attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 31% | Draw 31% | Hamburger SV 38%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 67%, Hamburger SV 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.83 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.