Werder Bremen 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
wohninvest WESERSTADION plays host to Werder Bremen versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 15 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at wohninvest WESERSTADION this season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 4W 1D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.44 PPG. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.44 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Werder Bremen's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Werder Bremen, 0 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 3–2 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 56% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 72% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.46 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.096 / defence 1.031 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.871 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.315. Data: 18 Werder Bremen games / 18 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 41% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 28%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 41% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Werder Bremen 1.46 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.096 / def 1.031 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.871 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Werder Bremen 3 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 41% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Werder Bremen and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (1 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 1.10x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.87x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.28
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.64
1.18
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.18 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 8W 5D 5L from 18 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 8L across 18 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Werder Bremen by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Düsseldorf heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 3W 1D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.28 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 67%.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.50 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 2 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Werder Bremen 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 50%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Werder Bremen) and 50% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Werder Bremen's games and 62% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.46 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 41% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 28%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 72%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.