Werder Bremen 4-0 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Erzgebirge AUE make the trip to wohninvest WESERSTADION to face Werder Bremen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 3 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Werder Bremen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 4D 4L at wohninvest WESERSTADION — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Erzgebirge AUE have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE away from home this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.10 for Erzgebirge AUE. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Erzgebirge AUE half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 53% versus Erzgebirge AUE 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 67% | Erzgebirge AUE 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.40 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.937 / defence 1.078 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.798 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.320. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Werder Bremen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Werder Bremen games / 15 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 34% | Erzgebirge AUE 27%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Erzgebirge AUE 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 50% | Erzgebirge AUE 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 34% | Erzgebirge AUE 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Werder Bremen 1.40 / Erzgebirge AUE 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.937 / def 1.078 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.798 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Erzgebirge AUE xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 December 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Werder Bremen 4 - 0 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 39% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge AUE?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge AUE in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.94) and Erzgebirge AUE's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Erzgebirge AUE's attack (0.80x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
39%
2.55
34%
2.94
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.53
1.14
Erzgebirge AUE xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.14 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Werder Bremen come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 5D 5L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Erzgebirge AUE sit at 0.93 PPG from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Erzgebirge AUE — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Werder Bremen's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Erzgebirge AUE have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Erzgebirge AUE are on 0.93 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzgebirge AUE in 60%.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge AUE in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Erzgebirge AUE have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Erzgebirge AUE away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.29 PPG; Erzgebirge AUE away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
0
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2022, when Erzgebirge AUE 0-3 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge AUE?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 57%, Erzgebirge AUE 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Werder Bremen) and 57% (Erzgebirge AUE).
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Erzgebirge AUE?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Werder Bremen's games and 71% of Erzgebirge AUE's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge AUE usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 57% of Erzgebirge AUE's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge AUE tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Erzgebirge AUE.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Erzgebirge AUE 4-0 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.40 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 1.14 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Erzgebirge AUE landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 34% | Erzgebirge AUE 27%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 67%, Erzgebirge AUE 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.