SV Wehen 1-2 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Wehen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

SV Wehen and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at BRITA-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SV Wehen have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

SV Wehen's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at BRITA-Arena this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

SSV Jahn Regensburg away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.20 for SV Wehen, 0.60 for SSV Jahn Regensburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SV Wehen, 0 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

SV Wehen half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 57% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 43% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.14 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.730 / defence 1.270 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.992 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.375. SV Wehen's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 SV Wehen games / 34 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SV Wehen 25% | Draw 25% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.96. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Wehen 70% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% BTTS from recent games.

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