SV Sandhausen 1-3 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Sandhausen host 1. FC Heidenheim at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Sandhausen stand at 1W 1D 4L from 6 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. SV Sandhausen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Sandhausen's home record at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald: 0W 1D 2L from 3 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.33 PPG).
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have recorded 2W 3D 1L from 6 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. 1. FC Heidenheim are 0.83 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.67), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
SV Sandhausen trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Sandhausen 33% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 0.72 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.556 / defence 1.179 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.779 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.281. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.556 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 SV Sandhausen games / 6 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 19% | Draw 38% | 1. FC Heidenheim 43%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 5.26 | Draw 2.63 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 0% | 1. FC Heidenheim 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 19% | Draw 38% | 1. FC Heidenheim 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG SV Sandhausen 0.72 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.556 / def 1.179 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.779 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
1. FC Heidenheim xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SV Sandhausen 1 - 3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 19% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 43% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Heidenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Sandhausen's attack at 0.56x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SV Sandhausen's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
19%
5.26
38%
2.66
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
1.89
1.18
1. FC Heidenheim xG
5.26
19%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 17.7 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.18 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Sandhausen come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 1D 4L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Sandhausen are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 0.83 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Early Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Have SV Sandhausen or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Sandhausen have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Heidenheim go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
SV Sandhausen's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
1
Draws
3
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
1. FC Heidenheim tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 33%, 1. FC Heidenheim 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Sandhausen) and 33% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 33%; SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 67% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of SV Sandhausen's recent matches and 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Sandhausen vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 33% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Sandhausen 1-3 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 0.72 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.18 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.56 / defence 1.18 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 19% | Draw 38% | 1. FC Heidenheim 43%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 50%, 1. FC Heidenheim 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Sandhausen shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Heidenheim scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.