SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 32 as SV Elversberg welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Waldstadion Kaiserlinde. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Elversberg's home record at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (SV Elversberg) versus 1.90 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SV Elversberg, 2 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with SV Elversberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 55% and SC Paderborn 07 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 58% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.28 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.066 / defence 0.861 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.031 / defence 0.767. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.289. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.767 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 SV Elversberg games / 65 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 38% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 31%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | SC Paderborn 07 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Elversberg 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 38% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG SV Elversberg 1.28 / SC Paderborn 07 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.066 / def 0.861 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.031 / def 0.767 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Elversberg 5 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 38% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (5 meetings): SV Elversberg 2W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.29
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.43
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.15 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 32W 17D 16L from 65 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 16L across 65 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.74 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 18W 6D 8L from 32 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 14W 12D 6L across 32 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.69 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 68%.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 32W 17D 16L in their last 65 games (1.74 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 32W 17D 16L in their last 65 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.88 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.69 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
1
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 53%, SC Paderborn 07 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (SV Elversberg) and 50% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SV Elversberg's games and 59% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SV Elversberg's matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Elversberg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat SC Paderborn 07 5-1 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.28 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 0.77, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 38% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 31%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 58%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.74 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.