SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Sandhausen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen meet at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
SV Sandhausen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.70 for SV Sandhausen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 0 for SV Sandhausen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 6–1 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SV Sandhausen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 52% versus SV Sandhausen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 64% | SV Sandhausen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.144 / defence 1.328 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.780 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.475. Data: 25 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 25 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 32% | Draw 31% | SV Sandhausen 37%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | SV Sandhausen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Sandhausen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Sandhausen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | SV Sandhausen 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 32% | Draw 31% | SV Sandhausen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 / SV Sandhausen 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.144 / def 1.328 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.780 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: SV Sandhausen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.53
SV Sandhausen xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 32% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SV Sandhausen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 0 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against SV Sandhausen's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — SV Sandhausen's attack (0.78x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Sandhausen Win
32%
3.13
31%
3.26
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.93
1.53
SV Sandhausen xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.53 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 14W 5D 6L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen's form line: 7W 8D 10L from 25 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SV Darmstadt 98 are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Sandhausen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L).
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 5W 4D 3L from 12 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.16 PPG overall record — SV Sandhausen travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.16 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen in 60%.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 14W 5D 6L in their last 25 games (1.88 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SV Sandhausen away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.92 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.58 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or SV Sandhausen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SV Sandhausen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 1-6 on 3 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
0
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, SV Sandhausen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when SV Sandhausen 0-4 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 42%, SV Sandhausen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 50% (SV Sandhausen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; SV Sandhausen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SV Sandhausen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 67% of SV Sandhausen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 50% of SV Sandhausen's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 26, as SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Sandhausen drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.53 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.14 / defence 1.33 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 32% | Draw 31% | SV Sandhausen 37%, with SV Sandhausen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 64%, SV Sandhausen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.