SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 31 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome FC St. Pauli to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor: 7W 3D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC St. Pauli — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, FC St. Pauli 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 53% versus FC St. Pauli 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 56% | FC St. Pauli 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.037 / defence 0.787 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.343 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.280. FC St. Pauli have an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 64 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 35%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | FC St. Pauli 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
SV Darmstadt 98 dominate the H2H record, yet FC St. Pauli are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC St. Pauli (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 60% | FC St. Pauli 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 / FC St. Pauli 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.037 / def 0.787 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.343 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC St. Pauli xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 3 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 39% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
Record (3 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.04x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.95
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.79
1.35
FC St. Pauli xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.35 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 64 games, going 37W 13D 14L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.67 PPG from 64 outings (30W 17D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.94 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 20W 8D 4L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.19 points per game from 32 outings (10W 8D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.69 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 37W 13D 14L in their last 64 games (1.94 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 30W 17D 17L in their last 64 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.12 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.19 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 53%, FC St. Pauli 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 59% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FC St. Pauli in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 62% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 59% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC St. Pauli run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.35 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.04 / defence 0.79 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.34 / defence 0.88, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 39% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 35%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 56%, FC St. Pauli 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.94 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.