SV Darmstadt 98 4-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome FC St. Pauli to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor: 5W 0D 1L from 6 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Darmstadt 98 at 2.00 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 58% versus FC St. Pauli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Darmstadt 98 75% | FC St. Pauli 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.369 / defence 0.809 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.009 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.362. SV Darmstadt 98 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 12 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 52% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 19%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | FC St. Pauli 5.26. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 17% | FC St. Pauli 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 52% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 / FC St. Pauli 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.369 / def 0.809 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.009 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC St. Pauli xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
SV Darmstadt 98 4 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 52% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.37x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.49
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.00
1.11
FC St. Pauli xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
15%
6.62
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
3%
34.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.11 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 2D 3L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 2.17 PPG from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.92 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 2.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 5W 0D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.58 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.33 scored and 0.92 conceded. SV Darmstadt 98's scoring rate against FC St. Pauli's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 3.00 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.40 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 20%, FC St. Pauli 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 60% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 80% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 60% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC St. Pauli 4-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.11 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.37 / defence 0.81 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 52% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 19%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 75%, FC St. Pauli 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.92 PPG, FC St. Pauli 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.