SV Darmstadt 98 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SV Darmstadt 98 2.10 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 3–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 54% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 67% | 1. FC Heidenheim 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.408 / defence 0.861 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.954 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.416. SV Darmstadt 98 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence strength of 0.724 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 39 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 47% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 28%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.57. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 47% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.408 / def 0.861 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.954 / def 0.724 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
1. FC Heidenheim xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SV Darmstadt 98 2 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 47% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (2 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.41) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.03
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.76
1.16
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
17.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.16 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 39 games, going 22W 6D 11L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 1.59 PPG from 39 outings (18W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.85 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 12W 3D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.31 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 6D 11L in their last 39 games (1.85 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 18W 8D 13L in their last 39 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.05 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.11 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
4
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 47%, 1. FC Heidenheim 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 42% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; 1. FC Heidenheim in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 32% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 42% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 2-2 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.16 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.41 / defence 0.86 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.95 / defence 0.72, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 47% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 28%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 67%, 1. FC Heidenheim 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.85 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.