SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 55%, yet in-form 1. FC Heidenheim provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. 1. FC Heidenheim are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
1. FC Heidenheim have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against SV Darmstadt 98's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 60% and 1. FC Heidenheim 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 54% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.01 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.872 / defence 1.007 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.822 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.533. 1. FC Heidenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 3 1. FC Heidenheim games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 55% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 24%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Heidenheim 4.17. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Heidenheim (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 55% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Heidenheim 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.01 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.872 / def 1.007 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.822 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.27
1. FC Heidenheim xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 55% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (6 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 4W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.87) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.65
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.28
1.27
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
3%
31.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.27 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 37 games, going 13W 14D 10L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 0.86 PPG from 37 outings (8W 8D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 9W 6D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 0.50 points per game from 18 outings (2W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.38 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim in 65%.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 13W 14D 10L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 8W 8D 21L in their last 37 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.83 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
4
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 44%, 1. FC Heidenheim 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 67% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 28% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.