SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 29 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor: 4W 0D 1L from 5 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 0L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for SV Darmstadt 98, 2.00 for 1. FC Nürnberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1. FC Nürnberg half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 54% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 73% | 1. FC Nürnberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.370 / defence 0.887 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.876 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.354. SV Darmstadt 98 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 11 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 49% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Nürnberg 20%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | 1. FC Nürnberg 5.00. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: SV Darmstadt 98 20% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 49% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Nürnberg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.370 / def 0.887 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.876 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
1. FC Nürnberg xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SV Darmstadt 98 2 - 0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 49% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.37) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.88x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
49%
2.04
31%
3.23
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.75
1.05
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
4%
27.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.05 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 2D 4L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.91 PPG from 11 outings (5W 6D 0L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.91 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L). That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Nürnberg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.45 scored and 0.64 conceded. SV Darmstadt 98's scoring rate against 1. FC Nürnberg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg in 64% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 6D 0L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.40 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.40 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 64%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SV Darmstadt 98 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
2
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 20%, 1. FC Nürnberg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 60% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 60% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 60% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.37 / defence 0.89 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 49% | Draw 31% | 1. FC Nürnberg 20%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 73%, 1. FC Nürnberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.55 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.