SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 5W 2D 3L at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 1.40 PPG versus VfL Wolfsburg's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 1–4 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% and VfL Wolfsburg 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.057 / defence 1.198 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.211 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.534. VfL Wolfsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 3 VfL Wolfsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Draw 20% | VfL Wolfsburg 50%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.33 | Draw 5.00 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.00. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Wolfsburg are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Draw 20% | VfL Wolfsburg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 / VfL Wolfsburg 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.057 / def 1.198 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.211 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
2.22
VfL Wolfsburg xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 30% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 50% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 2W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against VfL Wolfsburg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
30%
3.37
20%
4.93
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.92
2.22
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
11%
9.24
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
3%
31.16
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.22 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 12W 8D 19L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 9W 10D 20L from 39 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.13 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 4D 9L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.33 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 69%.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 8D 19L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 9W 10D 20L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.37 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when VfL Wolfsburg 4-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53%, VfL Wolfsburg 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 63% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 74% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.