SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face SC Paderborn 07.

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Match Analysis

SpVgg Greuther Fürth host SC Paderborn 07 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 24 August 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.60 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2024, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 SC Paderborn 07 — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% and SC Paderborn 07 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% | SC Paderborn 07 75%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.60 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.151 / defence 1.006 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.151 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.288. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 36 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 34%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.56 | Draw 3.73 | SC Paderborn 07 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 90% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 36 games, SC Paderborn 07 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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