SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hertha BSC travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Hertha BSC — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Hertha BSC away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 2 for Hertha BSC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–5 Hertha BSC — a Hertha BSC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% and Hertha BSC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56% | Hertha BSC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.30 xG and Hertha BSC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.126 / defence 0.770 | Hertha BSC attack 0.918 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.383. Hertha BSC's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output up. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have a tight defence (rating 0.770), which is pulling Hertha BSC's projected output down. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 54 games and Hertha BSC's last 20.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | Draw 19% | Hertha BSC 14%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 | Draw 5.37 | Hertha BSC 6.94. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (67%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | Draw 19% | Hertha BSC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.30 / Hertha BSC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.126 / def 0.770 | Hertha BSC attack 0.918 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Hertha BSC xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 2 Hertha BSC.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 67% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (1.13) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 54 games and Hertha BSC's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.37
14%
6.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.28
0.98
Hertha BSC xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
6.94
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
10%
10.01
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
1%
69.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.98 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 20W 16D 18L from 54 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 27L across 54 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.41 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 15W 9D 3L from their last 27 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 5W 4D 18L across their last 27 away games, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.46 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 67%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs Hertha BSC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hertha BSC away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 2.00 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hertha BSC won Hertha BSC 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
6
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%, Hertha BSC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 70% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 70% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 70% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 78% of Hertha BSC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hertha BSC defy the odds to beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.30 xG and Hertha BSC 0.98 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.13 / defence 0.77 against Hertha BSC attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | Draw 19% | Hertha BSC 14%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Hertha BSC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%, Hertha BSC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.41 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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