SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-2 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Hansa Rostock to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1W 5D 4L at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hansa Rostock — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Hansa Rostock's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Hansa Rostock trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% and Hansa Rostock 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | Hansa Rostock 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.898 / defence 1.188 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.832 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.291. Data: 11 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 45 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 32%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Hansa Rostock 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hansa Rostock (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% | Hansa Rostock 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 / Hansa Rostock 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.898 / def 1.188 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.832 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Hansa Rostock xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 2 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 40% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.58
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.74
1.27
Hansa Rostock xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.27 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 4W 15D 26L from 45 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 19L across 45 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hansa Rostock by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 4W 8D 10L from 22 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.13 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 15D 26L in their last 45 games (0.60 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.91 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68%, Hansa Rostock 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 54% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 27% of games; Hansa Rostock in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 46% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 54% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 12, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hansa Rostock drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.27 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 32%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%, Hansa Rostock 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hansa Rostock arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.