SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hannover 96 (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face Hannover 96.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer plays host to SpVgg Greuther Fürth versus Hannover 96 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 16). Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hannover 96's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hannover 96's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hannover 96 are 0.80 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Hannover 96, who have 3 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Feb 2024, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 Hannover 96 — a Hannover 96 win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Hannover 96 have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Hannover 96 — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% versus Hannover 96 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | Hannover 96 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 xG and Hannover 96 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.916 / defence 1.250 | Hannover 96 attack 0.902 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.518. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hannover 96's projected output up. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 49 games and Hannover 96's last 49.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 42%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.37 | Draw 3.51 | Hannover 96 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hannover 96 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% (last 10 home games) | Hannover 96 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 / Hannover 96 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.916 / def 1.250 | Hannover 96 attack 0.902 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Hannover 96 xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 0 Hannover 96.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 30% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.92) and Hannover 96's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hannover 96's attack (0.90x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 49 games and Hannover 96's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
30%
3.37
29%
3.51
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.14
1.71
Hannover 96 xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
5%
18.67
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.71 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 13D 18L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Hannover 96's form line: 21W 15D 13L from 49 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.59 for Hannover 96. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 24 home games (11W 6D 7L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 6W 9D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hannover 96's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.65 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 in 61%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs Hannover 96 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 18W 13D 18L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 21W 15D 13L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hannover 96 away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.62 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hannover 96 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
3
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Hannover 96 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Hannover 96 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%, Hannover 96 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 58% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hannover 96 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 58% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 58% of Hannover 96's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hannover 96 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 75% of Hannover 96's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hannover 96 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 xG and Hannover 96 1.71 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hannover 96 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.92 / defence 1.25 against Hannover 96 attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 42%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%, Hannover 96 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Hannover 96's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.37 PPG, Hannover 96 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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