SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Hamburger SV to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hamburger SV — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 9W 0D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.70 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Hamburger SV's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% and Hamburger SV 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65% | Hamburger SV 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.28 xG and Hamburger SV 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.947 / defence 1.173 | Hamburger SV attack 1.341 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.265. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 49 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 53%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Hamburger SV 1.89. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 90% | Hamburger SV 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.28 / Hamburger SV 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.947 / def 1.173 | Hamburger SV attack 1.341 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Hamburger SV xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 0 Hamburger SV.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.95) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
24%
4.23
23%
4.32
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.27
1.99
Hamburger SV xG
4.23
24%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
3%
30.96
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.99 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 6W 16D 27L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 26W 12D 11L from 49 games, 1.84 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.00 PPG from 24 outings (5W 9D 10L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 13W 6D 5L from 24 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.82 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 6W 16D 27L in their last 49 games (0.69 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 26W 12D 11L in their last 49 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.00 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.88 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2024, when Hamburger SV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%, Hamburger SV 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 46% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 54% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 46% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hamburger SV 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.28 xG and Hamburger SV 1.99 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hamburger SV landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Hamburger SV attack 1.34 / defence 0.97, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 53%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%, Hamburger SV 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.