SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hamburger SV (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 34 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Hamburger SV to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Hamburger SV — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Hamburger SV's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Hamburger SV in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Hamburger SV 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–5 with Hamburger SV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% versus Hamburger SV 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% | Hamburger SV 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG and Hamburger SV 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.937 / defence 1.197 | Hamburger SV attack 1.375 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 67 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% | Draw 22% | Hamburger SV 60%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Hamburger SV 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% | Draw 22% | Hamburger SV 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 / Hamburger SV 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.937 / def 1.197 | Hamburger SV attack 1.375 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Hamburger SV xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 18% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
Record (5 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 3W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.94) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
18%
5.45
22%
4.52
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.32
2.17
Hamburger SV xG
5.45
18%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
11%
8.72
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
2%
47.51
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.17 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 23W 17D 27L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Hamburger SV's form line: 33W 18D 16L from 67 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.64 PPG from 33 outings (15W 9D 9L).
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 13W 11D 9L from 33 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 61%.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 23W 17D 27L in their last 67 games (1.28 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 33W 18D 16L in their last 67 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hamburger SV away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.64 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.52 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2024, when Hamburger SV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, Hamburger SV 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 67% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 64% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 67% of Hamburger SV's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hamburger SV 3-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG and Hamburger SV 2.17 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against Hamburger SV attack 1.38 / defence 0.83, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% | Draw 22% | Hamburger SV 60%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%, Hamburger SV 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.