SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Benteler-Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Benteler-Arena: 2W 2D 3L from 7 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.14 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Benteler-Arena this season.
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock away from home this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.30 for Hansa Rostock. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 71% and Hansa Rostock 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 71% | Hansa Rostock 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.923 / defence 1.210 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.889 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.311. Hansa Rostock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 SC Paderborn 07 games / 14 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 33% | Draw 32% | Hansa Rostock 34%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Hansa Rostock 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 86% | Hansa Rostock 29% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 33% | Draw 32% | Hansa Rostock 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.39 / Hansa Rostock 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.923 / def 1.210 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.889 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Hansa Rostock xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 33% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.92x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.89x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
33%
3.00
32%
3.09
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.80
1.41
Hansa Rostock xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.41 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 4D 3L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.79 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.14 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 0-3 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
0
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 86%, Hansa Rostock 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Paderborn 07 and 57% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 29% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 57% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 15, as SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.41 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.92 / defence 1.21 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 33% | Draw 32% | Hansa Rostock 34%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 71%, Hansa Rostock 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.