SC Paderborn 07 3-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 17). Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SC Paderborn 07's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hansa Rostock's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hansa Rostock away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward SC Paderborn 07. A 0.90 PPG lead over Hansa Rostock (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 3–0 Hansa Rostock — a SC Paderborn 07 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 64% versus Hansa Rostock 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 74% | Hansa Rostock 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.47 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.942 / defence 1.008 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.848 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.455. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 50 games and Hansa Rostock's last 50.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.36 | Draw 3.91 | Hansa Rostock 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Hansa Rostock's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 home games) | Hansa Rostock 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.47 / Hansa Rostock 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.942 / def 1.008 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.848 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Hansa Rostock xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 15 December 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 42% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.94x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.85x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 50 games and Hansa Rostock's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.91
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Hansa Rostock xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.24 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 10D 17L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.16 PPG from 50 outings (17W 7D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 15W 2D 7L across their last 24 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.98 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs Hansa Rostock (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 23W 10D 17L in their last 50 games (1.58 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 7D 26L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hansa Rostock away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.96 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
SC Paderborn 07 have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won Hansa Rostock 0-3 SC Paderborn 07 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
0
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 May 2024: Hansa Rostock 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 62%, Hansa Rostock 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SC Paderborn 07 and 46% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Hansa Rostock Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 38% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 46% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hansa Rostock matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 67% of Hansa Rostock's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.47 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 26% | Hansa Rostock 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 74%, Hansa Rostock 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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