Rot-Weiß Essen 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rot-Weiß Essen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rot-Weiß Essen host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse in 2. Bundesliga, Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rot-Weiß Essen 1.52 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rot-Weiß Essen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.859 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.255. Data: 0 Rot-Weiß Essen games / 68 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rot-Weiß Essen 43% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%. Fair-value odds: Rot-Weiß Essen 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rot-Weiß Essen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rot-Weiß Essen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Final | Venue: Stadion an der Hafenstrasse • Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rot-Weiß Essen 43% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Rot-Weiß Essen 1.52 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Rot-Weiß Essen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.859 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Rot-Weiß Essen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Rot-Weiß Essen xG
Expected Goals
1.24
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 May 2026 at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse.
What was the final score in Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Rot-Weiß Essen 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse.
What competition is Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Final fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Rot-Weiß Essen a 43% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rot-Weiß Essen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rot-Weiß Essen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rot-Weiß Essen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rot-Weiß Essen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rot-Weiß Essen's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Rot-Weiß Essen's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rot-Weiß Essen Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.68
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Rot-Weiß Essen xG
Total xG
2.76
1.24
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
7%
15.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rot-Weiß Essen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.24 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Rot-Weiß Essen vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rot-Weiß Essen
Pre-Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rot-Weiß Essen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rot-Weiß Essen
0
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rot-Weiß Essen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, Rot-Weiß Essen have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rot-Weiß Essen and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 Rot-Weiß Essen.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rot-Weiß Essen home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Rot-Weiß Essen edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rot-Weiß Essen beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Final, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rot-Weiß Essen 1.52 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.24 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rot-Weiß Essen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rot-Weiß Essen 43% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%, with Rot-Weiß Essen to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.