SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-0 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as SSV Jahn Regensburg take on SV Sandhausen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Sandhausen make the trip to Jahnstadion Regensburg to face SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 July 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Sandhausen have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. SV Sandhausen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 3.00 in SSV Jahn Regensburg's favour (3.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, SV Sandhausen in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.02 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.978 / defence 1.150 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.907 / away 1.177. Data: 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 1 SV Sandhausen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 28% | Draw 37% | SV Sandhausen 35%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | SV Sandhausen 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 28% | Draw 37% | SV Sandhausen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.02 / SV Sandhausen 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.907 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SV Sandhausen xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 3 - 0 SV Sandhausen.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 28% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (0.98) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Sandhausen's attack (0.85x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.57
37%
2.68
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.17
1.15
SV Sandhausen xG
3.57
28%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.15 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Sandhausen, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SSV Jahn Regensburg by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Sandhausen heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; SV Sandhausen in 0%.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
SV Sandhausen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or SV Sandhausen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, SV Sandhausen in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SSV Jahn Regensburg won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
1
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 3, SV Sandhausen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when SV Sandhausen 2-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SV Sandhausen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 0% of SV Sandhausen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 0% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SSV Jahn Regensburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SV Sandhausen 3-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.02 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.15 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Sandhausen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 28% | Draw 37% | SV Sandhausen 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual SSV Jahn Regensburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 0%, SV Sandhausen 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. SSV Jahn Regensburg scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. SV Sandhausen shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.