SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-5 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hamburger SV make the trip to Jahnstadion Regensburg to face SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SSV Jahn Regensburg at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hamburger SV's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hamburger SV are 0.50 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hamburger SV in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Hamburger SV hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Hamburger SV winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hamburger SV have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 48% versus Hamburger SV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 51% | Hamburger SV 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.35 xG and Hamburger SV 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.724 / defence 0.959 | Hamburger SV attack 1.132 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.313. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hamburger SV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 65 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 36% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 39%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Hamburger SV 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 36% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.35 / Hamburger SV 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.724 / def 0.959 | Hamburger SV attack 1.132 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 5 Hamburger SV.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 36% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV?
Record (3 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 3W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SSV Jahn Regensburg's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.13x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
36%
2.82
26%
3.92
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.77
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.43 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record stands at 17W 17D 31L from 65 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 33W 17D 15L across 65 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SSV Jahn Regensburg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SSV Jahn Regensburg have managed 10W 11D 11L from 32 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 14W 9D 9L across 32 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.94 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 60%.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 17W 17D 31L in their last 65 games (1.05 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 33W 17D 15L in their last 65 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.28 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 5-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
5
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 56%, Hamburger SV 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 47% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 56% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 47% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 1-5 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-5 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.35 xG and Hamburger SV 1.43 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.43 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.96 against Hamburger SV attack 1.13 / defence 1.20, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 36% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 39%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 51%, Hamburger SV 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.