Holstein Kiel 1-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Holstein Kiel face SV Elversberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SV Elversberg travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 October 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Holstein Kiel have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Holstein Kiel's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 8 matches, SV Elversberg stand at 3W 2D 3L — 1.38 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings (25%). Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 away fixtures (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from their last 4 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Holstein Kiel 1.80 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.38 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 62% and SV Elversberg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 62% | SV Elversberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.56 xG and SV Elversberg 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.008 / defence 1.372 | SV Elversberg attack 1.021 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.297. Holstein Kiel's defence rating of 1.372 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Elversberg's projected output up. Data: built from Holstein Kiel's last 42 games and SV Elversberg's last 8.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 33% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 43%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 3.04 | Draw 4.22 | SV Elversberg 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.82) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 4 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Holstein Kiel 90% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 9 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 33% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Holstein Kiel 1.56 / SV Elversberg 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.008 / def 1.372 | SV Elversberg attack 1.021 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.82
SV Elversberg xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg FAQs
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 1 SV Elversberg.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 9) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 33% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against SV Elversberg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Holstein Kiel's last 42 games and SV Elversberg's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
33%
3.04
24%
4.22
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.38
1.82
SV Elversberg xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
16%
6.16
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
5%
18.72
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.82 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 0D 3L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Holstein Kiel carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across their last 4 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.75 points per game from their last 4 away games (2W 1D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SV Elversberg in 62%.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
Holstein Kiel (Home) vs SV Elversberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg Form FAQs
What form are Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.50 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
2
Draws
1
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Holstein Kiel have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Holstein Kiel 1-1 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Holstein Kiel at 100%, SV Elversberg at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Holstein Kiel and 50% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Holstein Kiel's games and 50% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 50% of SV Elversberg's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 75% of SV Elversberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg finished level at 1-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.56 xG and SV Elversberg 1.82 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SV Elversberg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.01 / defence 1.37 against SV Elversberg attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 33% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 43%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 62%, SV Elversberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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