Holstein Kiel 0-0 Preußen Münster – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Preußen Münster make the trip to Holstein-Stadion to face Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Holstein Kiel's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel at Holstein-Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Preußen Münster have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preußen Münster's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 0.60 for Preußen Münster. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Holstein Kiel 0W, Preußen Münster 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Preußen Münster winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Holstein Kiel — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Preußen Münster — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 70% and Preußen Münster 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 66% | Preußen Münster 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.57 xG and Preußen Münster 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.849 / defence 1.137 | Preußen Münster attack 0.770 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.326. Data: 27 Holstein Kiel games / 61 Preußen Münster games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 46% | Draw 27% | Preußen Münster 27%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Preußen Münster 3.70. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Holstein Kiel are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 70% | Preußen Münster 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 46% | Draw 27% | Preußen Münster 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.57 / Preußen Münster 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.849 / def 1.137 | Preußen Münster attack 0.770 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Preußen Münster xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster?
Holstein Kiel 0 - 0 Preußen Münster.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 46% chance of winning, Preußen Münster a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster?
Record (1 meetings): Holstein Kiel 0W | Draws 0 | Preußen Münster 1W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Preußen Münster (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (0.85) and Preußen Münster's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Preußen Münster's attack (0.77x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.73
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.74
1.16
Preußen Münster xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.16 for Preußen Münster, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 13W 14D 34L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preußen Münster's form line: 14W 20D 27L from 61 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.02 for Preußen Münster. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 0.97 PPG from 30 outings (8W 5D 17L).
On the road, Preußen Münster have gone 7W 7D 16L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Preußen Münster are on 1.16 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Preußen Münster in 64%.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Preußen Münster
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 13W 14D 34L in their last 61 games (0.87 PPG), while Preußen Münster have gone 14W 20D 27L in their last 61 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Preußen Münster away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 0.97 PPG; Preußen Münster away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
1
Preußen Münster
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster?
From 2 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 0, Preußen Münster have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Holstein Kiel 0-0 Preußen Münster.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster?
Preußen Münster have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 60%, Preußen Münster 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Holstein Kiel and 60% for Preußen Münster. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 27% of games; Preußen Münster in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Preußen Münster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Preußen Münster?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Holstein Kiel's games and 60% of Preußen Münster's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 60% of Preußen Münster's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Preußen Münster in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Holstein Kiel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster finished level at 0-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.57 xG and Preußen Münster 1.16 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Preußen Münster landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.85 / defence 1.14 against Preußen Münster attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 46% | Draw 27% | Preußen Münster 27%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 66%, Preußen Münster 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Preußen Münster's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 0.87 PPG, Preußen Münster 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.