Holstein Kiel 0-2 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock meet at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Holstein Kiel have posted 1W 0D 4L at Holstein-Stadion — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Holstein-Stadion this season.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 2W 1D 5L across 8 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.88 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Holstein Kiel, 0.88 for Hansa Rostock — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Hansa Rostock in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 38% versus Hansa Rostock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 100% | Hansa Rostock 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.04 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.787 / defence 1.462 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.746 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.422. Holstein Kiel's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Holstein Kiel games / 8 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 22% | Draw 32% | Hansa Rostock 46%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Hansa Rostock 2.17. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Holstein Kiel 20% | Hansa Rostock 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 22% | Draw 32% | Hansa Rostock 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.04 / Hansa Rostock 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.787 / def 1.462 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.746 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Hansa Rostock xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Holstein Kiel 0 - 2 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 22% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.75x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
22%
4.54
32%
3.11
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.59
1.55
Hansa Rostock xG
4.54
22%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
5%
21.43
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.55 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 0.88 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 0.75 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Holstein Kiel have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Holstein Kiel 2-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hansa Rostock see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Holstein Kiel) and 25% (Hansa Rostock) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Holstein Kiel and 50% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 75% of games; Hansa Rostock in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 25% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 50% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hansa Rostock cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Holstein Kiel 0-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.04 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.55 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.79 / defence 1.46 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.75 / defence 1.19, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 22% | Draw 32% | Hansa Rostock 46%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 81% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 100%, Hansa Rostock 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.00 PPG, Hansa Rostock 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.