Hertha BSC 0-1 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 44%, yet in-form SV Wehen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympiastadion Berlin plays host to Hertha BSC versus SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 2). Kick-off: Friday 4 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hertha BSC have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hertha BSC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SV Wehen's record over their last 3 games: 2W 1D 0L (2.33 PPG). Last five: W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On a straight form reading, SV Wehen are the stronger side — 1.53 PPG clear of the hosts (2.33 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Hertha BSC half-time and goal-timing data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SV Wehen half-time and goal-timing data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 67% and SV Wehen 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 33% | SV Wehen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.62 xG and SV Wehen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.868 / defence 1.150 | SV Wehen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.364. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 1 games and SV Wehen's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 44% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 32%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.26 | Draw 4.13 | SV Wehen 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Wehen (2.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 3 games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 50% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 67% (last 3 games).
The Poisson model's sample (Hertha BSC 1 games, SV Wehen 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 2 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 4 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 44% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Hertha BSC 1.62 / SV Wehen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | SV Wehen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
SV Wehen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 4 August 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen?
Hertha BSC 0 - 1 SV Wehen.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen part of?
Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 2) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 44% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hertha BSC and SV Wehen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against SV Wehen's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.85x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 1 games and SV Wehen's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
44%
2.26
24%
4.13
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.95
1.33
SV Wehen xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.33 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — D-W-L across the most recent five.
SV Wehen's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-D.
Put side by side, SV Wehen are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 2.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. SV Wehen's attacking output running into Hertha BSC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; SV Wehen in 67%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
SV Wehen
Early Season
Hertha BSC (Home) vs SV Wehen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Early Season
SV Wehen
Early Season
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Hertha BSC or SV Wehen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, SV Wehen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
2
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SV Wehen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 0, SV Wehen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SV Wehen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: SV Wehen 3-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SV Wehen?
SV Wehen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Hertha BSC, 67% for SV Wehen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hertha BSC) and 67% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: SV Wehen in 33%; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SV Wehen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and SV Wehen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hertha BSC's games and 67% of SV Wehen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and SV Wehen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 67% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and SV Wehen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 33% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 100% of SV Wehen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Wehen defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Wehen beat Hertha BSC 0-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.62 xG and SV Wehen 1.33 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hertha BSC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against SV Wehen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 44% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 32%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SV Wehen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 33%, SV Wehen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Wehen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hertha BSC managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Wehen managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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