Hertha BSC 3-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hertha BSC face Eintracht Braunschweig.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hertha BSC welcome Eintracht Braunschweig to Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 17 September 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hertha BSC stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Hertha BSC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Eintracht Braunschweig — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 1.00 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 62% and Eintracht Braunschweig 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 56% | Eintracht Braunschweig 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.89 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.095 / defence 0.971 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.821 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.377. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 5 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 39.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 56% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 21%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.80 | Draw 4.38 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.66. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 50% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 6 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 56% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hertha BSC 1.89 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.095 / def 0.971 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.821 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hertha BSC 3 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 6) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 56% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Braunschweig's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 5 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.38
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.99
1.10
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
3%
30.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.10 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 8W 8D 23L from 39 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 19L across 39 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 0.82 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 6W 6D 7L from their last 19 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Hertha BSC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 2W 6D 11L across their last 19 away games, a 0.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.15 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 62%.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
Hertha BSC (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Early Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
❓ Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 8W 8D 23L in their last 39 games (0.82 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.26 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Mar 2025, when Hertha BSC won Eintracht Braunschweig 1-5 Hertha BSC.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 5, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Eintracht Braunschweig 3-5 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hertha BSC at 58%, Eintracht Braunschweig at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Hertha BSC) and 63% (Eintracht Braunschweig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hertha BSC's games and 74% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Hertha BSC's matches and 63% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 63% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.89 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 56% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 21%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 56%, Eintracht Braunschweig 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 0.82 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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