Hansa Rostock 1-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock host Werder Bremen at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Werder Bremen are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hansa Rostock register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Werder Bremen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hansa Rostock, 1 for Werder Bremen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hansa Rostock trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Werder Bremen trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 57% versus Werder Bremen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hansa Rostock 57% | Werder Bremen 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.11 xG and Werder Bremen 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.668 / defence 1.076 | Werder Bremen attack 1.143 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.500. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.471 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Hansa Rostock games / 21 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 21% | Draw 26% | Werder Bremen 53%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Werder Bremen 1.89. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 70% | Werder Bremen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 21% | Draw 26% | Werder Bremen 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.11 / Werder Bremen 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.668 / def 1.076 | Werder Bremen attack 1.143 / def 1.471 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Werder Bremen xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 21% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.67) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
21%
4.76
26%
3.82
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.96
1.84
Werder Bremen xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
3%
30.09
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.84 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 6D 9L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Werder Bremen sit at 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 2W 3D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Werder Bremen have taken 1.70 points per game from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.95 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 21 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 11W 5D 5L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.90 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen?
From 2 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2022, when Hansa Rostock 1-2 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hansa Rostock at 70%, Werder Bremen at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Hansa Rostock and 90% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 30% of games; Werder Bremen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Hansa Rostock's games and 60% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 90% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Hansa Rostock and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Werder Bremen edge out Hansa Rostock 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat Hansa Rostock 1-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.11 xG and Werder Bremen 1.84 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.67 / defence 1.08 against Werder Bremen attack 1.14 / defence 1.47, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 21% | Draw 26% | Werder Bremen 53%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 57%, Werder Bremen 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.