Hansa Rostock 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to Ostseestadion to face Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 2W 1D 2L across 5 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SV Darmstadt 98 are 0.60 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 60% versus SV Darmstadt 98 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hansa Rostock 80% | SV Darmstadt 98 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.42 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.892 / defence 1.497 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.835 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.304. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Hansa Rostock games / 5 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 30% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 39%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 30% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.42 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.892 / def 1.497 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.835 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.63
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 30% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.89) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.83x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
30%
3.33
31%
3.28
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.05
1.63
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.99
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.63 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 on 13 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Hansa Rostock 0-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 60%, SV Darmstadt 98 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Hansa Rostock and 80% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 40% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 80% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Hansa Rostock and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hansa Rostock defy the odds to beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.42 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.63 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.89 / defence 1.50 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 30% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 39%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hansa Rostock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 80%, SV Darmstadt 98 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Hansa Rostock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hansa Rostock scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.