Hansa Rostock 0-2 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karlsruher SC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Karlsruher SC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karlsruher SC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hansa Rostock, 2 for Karlsruher SC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Karlsruher SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Karlsruher SC — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 45% versus Karlsruher SC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 45% | Karlsruher SC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 0.85 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.671 / defence 1.045 | Karlsruher SC attack 1.034 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.224. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Hansa Rostock games / 56 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 24% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 48%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Karlsruher SC 2.08. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karlsruher SC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 30% | Karlsruher SC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 24% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Hansa Rostock 0.85 / Karlsruher SC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.671 / def 1.045 | Karlsruher SC attack 1.034 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Karlsruher SC xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 2 Karlsruher SC.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 24% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC?
Record (3 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 1 | Karlsruher SC 2W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.67) and Karlsruher SC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karlsruher SC's attack (1.03x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
24%
4.16
28%
3.54
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.17
1.32
Karlsruher SC xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
6%
15.62
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.32 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 17W 14D 25L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karlsruher SC's form line: 17W 18D 21L from 56 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.23 for Karlsruher SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L).
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 7W 7D 13L from 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.55 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC in 61%.
Last 56 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Karlsruher SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 17W 18D 21L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Karlsruher SC away?
Karlsruher SC's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.00 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Karlsruher SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
2
Draws
4
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, Karlsruher SC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-2 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 48%, Karlsruher SC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Hansa Rostock) and 63% (Karlsruher SC).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 44% of games; Karlsruher SC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Karlsruher SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 56% of Karlsruher SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 63% of Karlsruher SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karlsruher SC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat Hansa Rostock 0-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 0.85 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 24% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 48%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 45%, Karlsruher SC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.16 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.