Hansa Rostock 1-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Hansa Rostock take on SSV Jahn Regensburg.

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Full Analysis

Ostseestadion plays host to Hansa Rostock versus SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 17 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Hansa Rostock have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Hansa Rostock's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Ostseestadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ostseestadion this season.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Hansa Rostock's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hansa Rostock 1W, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 3–2 with Hansa Rostock winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 55% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 55% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.03 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.770 / defence 1.120 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.696 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.338. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Hansa Rostock games / 29 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 32% | Draw 36% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 32%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 60% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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