Hansa Rostock 0-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Hansa Rostock welcome Hannover 96 to Ostseestadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hannover 96's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hansa Rostock at 1.20 PPG versus Hannover 96's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Hannover 96 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Hannover 96 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 50% versus Hannover 96 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 50% | Hannover 96 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.53 xG and Hannover 96 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.909 / defence 0.829 | Hannover 96 attack 1.176 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.399. Data: 40 Hansa Rostock games / 40 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 41% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 34%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Hannover 96 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 50% | Hannover 96 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 41% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.53 / Hannover 96 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.909 / def 0.829 | Hannover 96 attack 1.176 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Hannover 96 xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 41% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96?
Record (2 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | Hannover 96 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Hannover 96 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Hannover 96's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
41%
2.42
25%
4.05
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.89
1.36
Hannover 96 xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.36 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 13W 11D 16L from 40 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hannover 96, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 16L across 40 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.25 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 6W 5D 9L from 20 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hannover 96's away record stands at 6W 3D 11L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
Hannover 96
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 14W 10D 16L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Hannover 96 away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.15 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hannover 96 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2021, when Hansa Rostock won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
4
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Hannover 96 2-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 60%, Hannover 96 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 45% for Hansa Rostock and 75% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hansa Rostock's games and 55% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 75% of Hannover 96's.
Do Hansa Rostock and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hannover 96 defy the odds to beat Hansa Rostock 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat Hansa Rostock 0-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.53 xG and Hannover 96 1.36 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hansa Rostock fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.91 / defence 0.83 against Hannover 96 attack 1.18 / defence 1.06, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 41% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 34%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hannover 96 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 50%, Hannover 96 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hannover 96's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.25 PPG, Hannover 96 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.