Hannover 96 1-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hannover 96 face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hannover 96 welcome SV Darmstadt 98 to Heinz von Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hannover 96 have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hannover 96 at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hannover 96 1.80 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Hannover 96 have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Hannover 96 2–1 SV Darmstadt 98 — a Hannover 96 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hannover 96 trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 59% versus SV Darmstadt 98 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 59% | SV Darmstadt 98 63%). Note also that SV Darmstadt 98 surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Hannover 96 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 2.24 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.068 / defence 0.682 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.373 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.451. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.359 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hannover 96's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98 have an above-average attack rating of 1.373, which lifts their away xG to 1.36. Hannover 96 have a tight defence (rating 0.682), which is pulling SV Darmstadt 98's projected output down. Data: built from Hannover 96's last 46 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 12.
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 56% | Draw 22% | SV Darmstadt 98 21%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 1.78 | Draw 4.48 | SV Darmstadt 98 4.67. The model has a clear lean to Hannover 96 (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.24 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hannover 96 as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hannover 96's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hannover 96 60% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 56% | Draw 22% | SV Darmstadt 98 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Hannover 96 2.24 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.068 / def 0.682 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.373 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.36
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Hannover 96 1 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 56% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (1.07) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hannover 96's last 46 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.48
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
3.60
1.36
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
2%
43.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.36 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 20W 14D 12L from 46 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 7W 12D 27L across 46 games — 0.72 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hannover 96 by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Darmstadt 98 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 14W 5D 3L from their last 22 home games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Hannover 96 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across their last 22 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.22 scored and 2.37 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Hannover 96 (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hannover 96
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 20W 14D 12L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 7W 12D 27L in their last 46 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Hannover 96's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 2.14 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Hannover 96 have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Aug 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won SV Darmstadt 98 4-0 Hannover 96.
Hannover 96's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Hannover 96
1
Draws
5
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Hannover 96 have won 3, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 86% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 59%, SV Darmstadt 98 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Hannover 96 and 68% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hannover 96 vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hannover 96's games and 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Hannover 96's matches and 68% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Hannover 96 and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 77% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Darmstadt 98 defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Hannover 96 1-2 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 2.24 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hannover 96 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.07 / defence 0.68 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.37 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 56% | Draw 22% | SV Darmstadt 98 21%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a SV Darmstadt 98 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 59%, SV Darmstadt 98 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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