Hannover 96 2-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hannover 96 face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hannover 96 welcome Hertha BSC to Heinz von Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 24 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hannover 96 have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hannover 96's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hertha BSC stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hertha BSC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Hannover 96) versus 1.70 (Hertha BSC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hannover 96 64% and Hertha BSC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 60% | Hertha BSC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 2.38 xG and Hertha BSC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.195 / defence 0.818 | Hertha BSC attack 0.898 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.375. Hertha BSC's defence rating of 1.237 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hannover 96's projected output up. Data: built from Hannover 96's last 47 games and Hertha BSC's last 13.
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 67% | Draw 20% | Hertha BSC 13%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 1.49 | Draw 5.10 | Hertha BSC 7.42. The model has a clear lean to Hannover 96 (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hannover 96's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hannover 96 40% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 67% | Draw 20% | Hertha BSC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Hannover 96 2.38 / Hertha BSC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.195 / def 0.818 | Hertha BSC attack 0.898 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Hertha BSC xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC FAQs
What time does Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Hannover 96 2 - 2 Hertha BSC.
Where is Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC part of?
Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 67% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (1.20) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hannover 96's last 47 games and Hertha BSC's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.10
13%
7.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
3.39
1.01
Hertha BSC xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
7.42
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
9%
10.84
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
1%
80.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.01 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 18W 12D 17L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 25L across 47 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hannover 96 by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 12W 4D 7L from their last 23 home games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 4W 3D 16L across their last 23 away games, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.40 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 64%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
Hannover 96 (Home) vs Hertha BSC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hannover 96
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC Form FAQs
What form are Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 12W 10D 25L in their last 47 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.74 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2025, when Hertha BSC won Hannover 96 0-3 Hertha BSC.
Hannover 96's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hannover 96
4
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hannover 96 have won 1, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Hertha BSC 2-3 Hannover 96.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 56%, Hertha BSC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Hannover 96 and 65% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hannover 96 vs Hertha BSC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Hannover 96's games and 65% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Hannover 96's matches and 65% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 74% of Hertha BSC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 and Hertha BSC finished level at 2-2 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 2.38 xG and Hertha BSC 1.01 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against Hertha BSC attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 67% | Draw 20% | Hertha BSC 13%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 60%, Hertha BSC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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