Hamburger SV 6-1 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host SSV Ulm 1846 at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hamburger SV's home record at Volksparkstadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SSV Ulm 1846's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Hamburger SV have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hamburger SV register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hamburger SV, 0 for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hamburger SV trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
SSV Ulm 1846 trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 66% and SSV Ulm 1846 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 75% | SSV Ulm 1846 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.67 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.207 / defence 1.073 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.705 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.307. Data: 66 Hamburger SV games / 32 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 52% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 21%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | SSV Ulm 1846 4.76. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 60% | SSV Ulm 1846 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 52% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Hamburger SV 1.67 / SSV Ulm 1846 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.207 / def 1.073 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.705 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.99
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Hamburger SV 6 - 1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 52% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 1 | SSV Ulm 1846 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against SSV Ulm 1846's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Ulm 1846's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.76
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.66
0.99
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
4%
25.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.99 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 15W 11D 6L from 32 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
SSV Ulm 1846, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 15L across 32 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SSV Ulm 1846 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 7W 7D 2L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SSV Ulm 1846's away record stands at 2W 7D 7L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 1.03 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Current Season
SSV Ulm 1846
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 15W 11D 6L in their last 32 games (1.75 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.75 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
0
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 1, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Hamburger SV 6-1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 69%, SSV Ulm 1846 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Hamburger SV) and 38% (SSV Ulm 1846). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SSV Ulm 1846 in 31%; SSV Ulm 1846 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SSV Ulm 1846?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Hamburger SV's games and 50% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hamburger SV's matches and 38% of SSV Ulm 1846's.
Do Hamburger SV and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 6-1 hammering of SSV Ulm 1846.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SSV Ulm 1846 6-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.67 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.99 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.21 / defence 1.07 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.70 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 52% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 21%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 75%, SSV Ulm 1846 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.