Hamburger SV 5-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg meet at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hamburger SV have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 2W 1D 3L across 6 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.17 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Hamburger SV's 1.70 PPG return is 0.53 points per game ahead of SSV Jahn Regensburg's 1.17 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Hamburger SV, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against SSV Jahn Regensburg — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 5–1 with Hamburger SV winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hamburger SV and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 5.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 67% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.05 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.165 / defence 0.895 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.629 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.364. Data: 38 Hamburger SV games / 4 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 65% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 11%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Hamburger SV 60% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 65% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG Hamburger SV 2.05 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.165 / def 0.895 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.629 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.77
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Hamburger SV 5 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 65% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (4 meetings): Hamburger SV 4W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.83 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.17x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.63x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.30
11%
8.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.82
0.77
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
8.90
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
1%
69.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.77 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Jahn Regensburg.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.83 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.33 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 5-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 5, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Hamburger SV, 33% for SSV Jahn Regensburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hamburger SV) and 33% (SSV Jahn Regensburg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hamburger SV's games and 33% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 33% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 5-0 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 5-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.05 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.77 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.63 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 65% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 11%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 50%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.