Hamburger SV 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Volksparkstadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Hamburger SV) versus 1.70 (Fortuna Düsseldorf). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hamburger SV, 0 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 55% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.35 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.867 / defence 0.788 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.912 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.344. Hamburger SV's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Hamburger SV games / 42 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 45% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 26%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.85. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hamburger SV 40% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 45% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Hamburger SV 1.35 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.867 / def 0.788 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.912 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hamburger SV 2 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 45% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 0.87x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.55
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.32
0.97
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
7%
14.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.97 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 42 games, going 22W 11D 9L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.38 PPG from 42 outings (15W 13D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.45 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 62%.
Defensively: Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 22W 11D 9L in their last 42 games (1.83 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 15W 13D 14L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.81 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hamburger SV go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
3
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Hamburger SV 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 57%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hamburger SV) and 48% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 48% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.35 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.97 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.87 / defence 0.79 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 45% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 26%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 50%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.