Hamburger SV 2-3 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 23 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Volksparkstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Hamburger SV's favour (2.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 33% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 33% | 1. FC Magdeburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.85 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.948 / defence 0.767 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.870 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.249. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Hamburger SV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hamburger SV's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Hamburger SV games / 12 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 60% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 15%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Magdeburg 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 60% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Hamburger SV 1.85 / 1. FC Magdeburg 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.948 / def 0.767 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.870 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.83
1. FC Magdeburg xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hamburger SV 2 - 3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 60% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (0.95) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (0.87x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
60%
1.67
25%
3.97
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.68
0.83
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
42.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.83 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 8W 1D 3L from 12 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 8L across 12 games — 0.83 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Magdeburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.08 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.08 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Defensively: Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 8W 1D 3L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.67 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hamburger SV go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 0-3 on 14 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 3, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when 1. FC Magdeburg 0-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 33%, 1. FC Magdeburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Hamburger SV) and 67% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 67% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Magdeburg defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Hamburger SV 2-3 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.85 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.83 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.95 / defence 0.77 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.31, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 60% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 15%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Magdeburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 33%, 1. FC Magdeburg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Magdeburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.