Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortuna Düsseldorf face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

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Full Analysis

Merkur Spiel-Arena plays host to Fortuna Düsseldorf versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Fortuna Düsseldorf have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.16 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.223 / defence 1.243 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.882 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.350. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output up. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 57 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 57.

Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.93 | Draw 4.27 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.03. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.16 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 away games).

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