Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host SSV Jahn Regensburg at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 2W 1D 3L from 6 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.17 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 4W 1D 1L from 6 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.17 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 2W 0D 1L from 3 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SSV Jahn Regensburg are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.17 vs 1.17), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.13 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.100 / defence 1.355 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.938 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.281. Data: 6 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 6 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 23% | Draw 31% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 46%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.17. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 23% | Draw 31% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.13 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.100 / def 1.355 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.938 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.63
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 23% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating (1.10) and SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
23%
4.30
31%
3.24
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.76
1.63
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
4.30
23%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
5%
21.91
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.63 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 1L across 6 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SSV Jahn Regensburg by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Düsseldorf heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 2.33 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Düsseldorf go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 67% (SSV Jahn Regensburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 33% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 67% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.13 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.63 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.10 / defence 1.35 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 23% | Draw 31% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 46%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SSV Jahn Regensburg managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.