Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Hertha BSC at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Fortuna Düsseldorf have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, Hertha BSC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% and Hertha BSC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | Hertha BSC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.86 xG and Hertha BSC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.243 / defence 1.226 | Hertha BSC attack 0.946 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.495. Data: 55 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 55 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 36%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Hertha BSC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.86 / Hertha BSC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.243 / def 1.226 | Hertha BSC attack 0.946 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Hertha BSC xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 41% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 2W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating (1.24) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
41%
2.42
23%
4.42
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.59
1.73
Hertha BSC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
7%
13.70
6%
17.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.73 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 27W 15D 13L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 20W 13D 22L from 55 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 10W 6D 12L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.82 scored and 1.69 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 71%.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 27W 15D 13L in their last 55 games (1.75 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 20W 13D 22L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hertha BSC away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.54 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Hertha BSC won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 61%, Hertha BSC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 71% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 75% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 71% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out Hertha BSC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hertha BSC 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.86 xG and Hertha BSC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.24 / defence 1.23 against Hertha BSC attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 36%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, Hertha BSC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.