FC St. Pauli 2-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host SC Paderborn 07 at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 8W 1D 0L at Millerntor-Stadion — 2.78 PPG. They are averaging 2.89 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 3D 0L from 9 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC St. Pauli at 1.50 PPG versus SC Paderborn 07's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC St. Pauli, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 60% and SC Paderborn 07 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC St. Pauli 75% | SC Paderborn 07 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.73 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.385 / defence 1.028 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.045 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.413. FC St. Pauli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 FC St. Pauli games / 20 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 41% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 32%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | SC Paderborn 07 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 56% | SC Paderborn 07 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 41% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.73 / SC Paderborn 07 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.385 / def 1.028 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.045 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.52
SC Paderborn 07 xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 41% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.39x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.65
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.25
1.52
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.52 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 11W 4D 5L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 8W 6D 6L from 20 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.85 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.78 PPG from 9 outings (8W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 3D 0L from 9 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — SC Paderborn 07 travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.80 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 75%.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 4D 5L in their last 20 games (1.85 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 8W 6D 6L in their last 20 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.78 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 56%, SC Paderborn 07 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for FC St. Pauli and 67% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC St. Pauli's games and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 2-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.73 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.52 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.39 / defence 1.03 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 41% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 32%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 75%, SC Paderborn 07 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.85 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.