FC St. Pauli 2-2 Erzgebirge AUE – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Erzgebirge AUE make the trip to Millerntor-Stadion to face FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 8W 0D 0L at Millerntor-Stadion — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Erzgebirge AUE's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 4L across 8 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward FC St. Pauli. A 0.90 PPG lead over Erzgebirge AUE (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Erzgebirge AUE half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 56% versus Erzgebirge AUE 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 72% | Erzgebirge AUE 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.44 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.420 / defence 0.953 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.728 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.315. FC St. Pauli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Erzgebirge AUE bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 FC St. Pauli games / 18 Erzgebirge AUE games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 70% | Draw 20% | Erzgebirge AUE 11%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Erzgebirge AUE 9.09. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 50% | Erzgebirge AUE 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 70% | Draw 20% | Erzgebirge AUE 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 56% | xG FC St. Pauli 2.44 / Erzgebirge AUE 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.420 / def 0.953 | Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.728 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Erzgebirge AUE xG
56%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 2 Erzgebirge AUE.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 70% chance of winning, Erzgebirge AUE a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 1 | Erzgebirge AUE 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Erzgebirge AUE's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.44. Flip it around — Erzgebirge AUE's attack (0.73x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
70%
1.44
20%
5.05
11%
9.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.35
0.91
Erzgebirge AUE xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
9.36
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
9%
11.47
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
107.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.91 for Erzgebirge AUE, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 11W 3D 4L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Erzgebirge AUE's form line: 3W 5D 10L from 18 games, 0.78 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzgebirge AUE.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 3.00 PPG from 8 outings (8W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Erzgebirge AUE are on 0.83 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 3D 4L in their last 18 games (2.00 PPG), while Erzgebirge AUE have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Erzgebirge AUE away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 3.00 PPG; Erzgebirge AUE away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
0
Erzgebirge AUE
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE?
From 2 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 0, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when FC St. Pauli 2-2 Erzgebirge AUE.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 50%, Erzgebirge AUE 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for FC St. Pauli and 62% for Erzgebirge AUE. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Erzgebirge AUE in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Erzgebirge AUE away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Erzgebirge AUE?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC St. Pauli's games and 62% of Erzgebirge AUE's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge AUE usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 62% of Erzgebirge AUE's.
Do FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Erzgebirge AUE in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and Erzgebirge AUE finished level at 2-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.44 xG and Erzgebirge AUE 0.91 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Erzgebirge AUE outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.42 / defence 0.95 against Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.73 / defence 1.38, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 70% | Draw 20% | Erzgebirge AUE 11%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 72%, Erzgebirge AUE 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.