FC Schalke 04 4-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees 1. FC Nürnberg travel to VELTINS-Arena to take on FC Schalke 04. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VELTINS-Arena, FC Schalke 04 have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record: 2W 4D 1L from 7 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Schalke 04 1.60 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
FC Schalke 04 in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 56% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 62% | 1. FC Nürnberg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.84 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.352 / defence 1.335 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.841 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.280. FC Schalke 04 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 FC Schalke 04 games / 16 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 44% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Schalke 04 are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 80% | 1. FC Nürnberg 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 44% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.84 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.352 / def 1.335 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.841 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 10 December 2021 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC Schalke 04 4 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (1.35) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.51
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.27
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.44 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Schalke 04 come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 2D 6L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (7W 6D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 1.62 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Schalke 04's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.44 scored and 1.00 conceded. FC Schalke 04's scoring rate against 1. FC Nürnberg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 8W 2D 6L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 7W 6D 3L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.86 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.43 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2021, when FC Schalke 04 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
FC Schalke 04
0
Draws
2
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 6, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 71%, 1. FC Nürnberg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC Schalke 04 and 57% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Schalke 04's games and 57% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 57% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Schalke 04 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 4-1 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.84 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.44 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.35 / defence 1.33 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 44% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 27%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 62%, 1. FC Nürnberg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.62 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.